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Experts: the dollar may temporarily rise above 80 rubles

According to the estimates of the chief analyst of BCS Premier Anton Pokatovich, the ruble exchange rate will continue to stabilize with the actions of the Central Bank

MOSCOW, April 21. / Corr. TASS Alisa Stolyarova. In April - May, the Russian currency may again show a weakening of up to 80 rubles per dollar and lower amid a collapse in oil prices. Nevertheless, this price range will be temporary, experts interviewed by TASS said.

The Russian ruble has been weakening since the beginning of the week, reacting to dramatic events unfolding in the oil market. So, on Monday, the cost of May WTI oil futures for the first time in US history dropped to negative levels. “Against the backdrop of panic today in the morning, the price of the Brent futures contract fell below $ 20 per barrel, and the ruble, which had previously endured all the hardships and hardships, could no longer ignore this fact,” Finam Group analyst Sergey Drozdov said.

The price of domestic currency on the Mosbir as of 18:39 was 77.05 rubles per dollar. Since the close of Friday's trading, the dollar against the ruble has grown by more than 4%. According to experts interviewed by TASS, the risk of reaching the ruble exchange rate in March is above 80 rubles per dollar due to continuing instability in the oil market, so far it cannot be ruled out.

Temporary fluctuations
The reaction of investors to the collapse in oil prices can be very emotional, fears may arise in the markets for the recurrence of such episodes in the near future, said Anton Pokatovich, chief analyst at BCS Premier. "As a result, market participants can now return to front-end sales of the oil asset, which will increase pressure on the quotes of the entire oil market," he explained.

According to experts, in the short term, Brent oil quotes may fall significantly below $ 20, WTI may go below $ 10-15, WTI quotes in the June contract will move to the negative zone due to the actions of speculators in the monthly run can not be excluded. Against this background, ruble volatility can increase, up to a possible temporary weakening to levels of 80 rubles per dollar.

The fact that with a further fall in oil prices, the return of the dollar to the ruble to the level of 80 rubles and higher seems quite probable, said Yuri Kravchenko, head of the Veles Capital and Banking and Money Market Analysis Division. Nevertheless, it is most likely that it will not be possible to update the maximum since the beginning of this year - 81.97 rubles per dollar in domestic currency, he added.

New price shocks, including a decrease in the ruble to 80 rubles per dollar, are possible if the isolation regime drags on and there is no significant reduction in oil production by producers, said Maxim Biryukov, senior analyst at Alfa Capital. Panic mass buying up of the currency by the population may contribute to the growth of the dollar, he said.

There are also risks for the ruble in terms of accelerated inflation, added Alexander Osin, an analyst with Freedom Finance. And, despite the fact that in May the forecast for the ruble to fall to 80 rubles per dollar looks like a negative scenario, it cannot be ruled out, he added. The weakening of the ruble by 5-7% while maintaining oil prices at the level of $ 20-25 per barrel on the horizon of two months is not excluded by the economists of Renaissance Capital in Russia and the CIS Sofya Donets and Andrei Melashchenko.

Factors that will hinder the weakening of the ruble
The ruble exchange rate will continue to stabilize with the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, said Anton Pokatovich from BCS Premier. “It is likely that the regulator will further expand the volume of currency purchases from current daily levels of $ 200 million to levels of $ 300 million and higher. Thus, our medium-term potential for the weakening of the ruble remains close to 78 rubles per dollar,” the expert explained.

In addition, "despite the diving oil quotes, which at the moment were losing over 25%, the Russian currency was losing less than 3%," added Finam Group analyst Sergei Drozdov. This may indicate that bidders are counting on an early end to the panic on commodity sites, the expert also noted, adding that with the development of such a scenario, the mark of 77.27 rubles per dollar could become a local limit for the weakening of the ruble.

In addition, China has significantly weakened isolation, and some European countries and the United States are also on this path, said Maxim Biryukov, senior analyst at Alfa Capital. "If this trend continues, then in May global demand for oil may grow significantly, which will affect both the prices and the national currencies of oil exporting countries, including Russia," he said.

Also, in the coming weeks, support for the market will be formed due to information about the start of the OPEC deal to limit production, added Alexander Osin. "This transaction seems to be a powerful tool to support demand, since the volume of reduction in the medium term is several times higher than the current average market estimated levels of reduction in consumption," he explained.

According to expert forecasts, the target level of a piece of the dollar against the ruble at the end of May can now be estimated at 74-80 rubles.

tass.